Maryland is Leaving the ACC, but How's Their Math?

It's been a rough week if you're a fan of the Atlantic Coast Conference.

As everyone knows by now, the University of Maryland voted Monday morning to leave the ACC to join the B1G (that means Big Ten plus three).

The Terrapins are of course a charter member of the ACC—founded in 1953—but their athletic programs are hemorrhaging money to the tune of losing $26.8 million last year.

That apparently means that they had to jump at the chance for slightly more television revenue.

The B1G hands out approximately $24 million a year per school versus $17 million for the ACC.

Interestingly, taking a look at the Nielsen numbers from 2011 tells us that the B1G number is about right while the ACC badly botched their most recent negotiations.

For football, the SEC is clearly No. 1 with 4,447,000 viewers. No. 2 is the B1G with 3,276,000 and the ACC is in third with 2,650,000.

The B1G is first in hoops with the ACC close behind. The biggest difference between the two television deals is the B1G deal expires in 2017 while the ACC locked themselves in until 2027.

According to Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel, the B1G projects to be able to distribute roughly $43 million per school when the conference negotiates its next deal, but that number strikes me as unlikely and based on a lot of assumptions.

The B1G is assuming that the new television markets brought in by adding Maryland and Rutgers—Washington, D.C. and New York City/New Jersey—will give them far more households with the B1G Network on their standard tier 1 sports package.

That would give them tremendous bargaining power when the time to talk turkey comes up again.

However, the way people watch television is changing rapidly and the industry will have to change too if it wants to keep its subscribers.

A recent study suggests that the average monthly cable bill could be $200 by 2020. That's absolutely insane.

Prices are already far above what the shoddy product we receive is worth which has been driving people online for entertainment.

It's not surprising when services like HuluPlus, Netflix, Vudu, Amazon Prime and others are all vastly superior to wildly inconsistent cable connections filled with dozens of channels that go unwatched.

Thus, the thinking is that in the future cable companies will offer broadband connections with more options for à la carte programming and less of the stuff you don't want in an attempt to keep people from going online. 

This is an intriguing issue in and of itself, but my point is simply these revenue projections by the B1G are likely overly optimistic. 

That's especially true when you consider that the league is simply diluting its product by adding two middling football programs and hoping that market share somehow overrides the product on the field. 

It's somewhat sad to see Maryland leave I guess, but they're a mediocre athletic department that brings very little to the table in the sport driving all this conference realignment nonsense, football. 

I'm hoping that ACC commissioner John Swofford holds the Terps to the $50 million exit fee (one they didn't agree to) and finally shows he has some cajones when it comes to negotiating. 

Stick it to the deserters I say, and take your time finding the new member to fill their shoes. Everyone's assuming a school like UConn or Cincinnati is the logical choice, but are both unappealing options. 

I say take that $50 million and pay a better candidate's exit fee from some other conference. 

Or, umm...Notre Dame, are you sure you don't want to play football with us for real? Pleeeeeeeease?  

Conference Dominoes Begin To Fall

Let the chaos begin. Colorado and Nebraska were the first schools to announce conference moves in what is expected to be a summer riddled with realignment.

The Buffaloes are headed further west to the Pac-10, tentatively effective in 2012, while the Cornhuskers are headed east to the Big Ten, effective in July 2011.

Boise State, a school that has been a menace to BCS conference schools over the past decade, enhanced its image by moving from the WAC where it has dominated its conference foes to the much more competitive and balanced Mountain West. TCU, Utah, and now Boise State headline a conference pining to negotiate with the BCS for an automatic bid into one of its lucrative bowls.

Of course, Colorado, Nebraska, and Boise State are only the tip of the iceberg in what some are saying will be a titanic shift in collegiate athletics.

Notre Dame and Texas are the two institutions said to hold the keys for how the rest of the summer will shakeout. If either school makes a decision to move, or stay, it will impact the decisions of others.

Independence is at the forefront of the conversations about the Irish. Some say the Irish can no longer afford to stay independent because of potential lost revenues from what may evolve into four elite super conferences of 16 teams each. Of course, those people have absolutely no clue what they are talking about.

Notre Dame Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick, a '76 alum, knows better than to waltz into town and hastily sever hundreds of years of tradition forged by an independent identity.

The opportunity cost of alienating an extremely loyal fan base ripe with deep pockets does not outweigh any potential gained revenue from a newly formed super conference TV network.

And then there is Texas, a school with not only national championship-caliber football and basketball teams but a plethora of other 'olympic' sports, like baseball, track and field, tennis, and swimming.

Longhorns' fans know that their school is being coveted by several conferences including its current dwelling the Big XII, Pac-10, SEC, and Big Ten. Burnt Orange Nation would bring one of the most profitable brands in all of collegiate athletics to the most compelling (and profitable) bidder.

Some indications cite that Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will all head to the Pac-10 to form a super conference of 16 teams (thanks in part to the newly added Buffaloes). Other speculation pits the Aggies of Texas A&M in the SEC.

Truth be told, no one save for the board of trustees at each of the involved institutions has any idea what will unfold.

Right now there is a lot of guess work and hedged bets being made by athletics directors everywhere.

For instance, Nebraska's AD Tom Osborne indicated that his school was too apprehensive about what might happen to sit back and watch things unfold. The 'Huskers issued a preemptive strike to do what it felt was its best opportunity to emerge unharmed from the impending raid of the Big XII.

When the smoke has cleared at the end of the summer the Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-10, MWC, and Big East will all look remarkably different from how they ended the spring.

Alas, any outcomes from conference realignment will not likely be seen on the fields of play until 2011. Consequently, I am reserving any judgment or excitement toward the supposed new super conferences until that time.

With the start of the college football season right around the corner this sports fan is appreciative of the parent that supports each conference: the NCAA.

At the end of the day collegiate athletics falls under one large entity, thankfully not individual conferences.