Maryland is Leaving the ACC, but How's Their Math?

It's been a rough week if you're a fan of the Atlantic Coast Conference.

As everyone knows by now, the University of Maryland voted Monday morning to leave the ACC to join the B1G (that means Big Ten plus three).

The Terrapins are of course a charter member of the ACC—founded in 1953—but their athletic programs are hemorrhaging money to the tune of losing $26.8 million last year.

That apparently means that they had to jump at the chance for slightly more television revenue.

The B1G hands out approximately $24 million a year per school versus $17 million for the ACC.

Interestingly, taking a look at the Nielsen numbers from 2011 tells us that the B1G number is about right while the ACC badly botched their most recent negotiations.

For football, the SEC is clearly No. 1 with 4,447,000 viewers. No. 2 is the B1G with 3,276,000 and the ACC is in third with 2,650,000.

The B1G is first in hoops with the ACC close behind. The biggest difference between the two television deals is the B1G deal expires in 2017 while the ACC locked themselves in until 2027.

According to Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel, the B1G projects to be able to distribute roughly $43 million per school when the conference negotiates its next deal, but that number strikes me as unlikely and based on a lot of assumptions.

The B1G is assuming that the new television markets brought in by adding Maryland and Rutgers—Washington, D.C. and New York City/New Jersey—will give them far more households with the B1G Network on their standard tier 1 sports package.

That would give them tremendous bargaining power when the time to talk turkey comes up again.

However, the way people watch television is changing rapidly and the industry will have to change too if it wants to keep its subscribers.

A recent study suggests that the average monthly cable bill could be $200 by 2020. That's absolutely insane.

Prices are already far above what the shoddy product we receive is worth which has been driving people online for entertainment.

It's not surprising when services like HuluPlus, Netflix, Vudu, Amazon Prime and others are all vastly superior to wildly inconsistent cable connections filled with dozens of channels that go unwatched.

Thus, the thinking is that in the future cable companies will offer broadband connections with more options for à la carte programming and less of the stuff you don't want in an attempt to keep people from going online. 

This is an intriguing issue in and of itself, but my point is simply these revenue projections by the B1G are likely overly optimistic. 

That's especially true when you consider that the league is simply diluting its product by adding two middling football programs and hoping that market share somehow overrides the product on the field. 

It's somewhat sad to see Maryland leave I guess, but they're a mediocre athletic department that brings very little to the table in the sport driving all this conference realignment nonsense, football. 

I'm hoping that ACC commissioner John Swofford holds the Terps to the $50 million exit fee (one they didn't agree to) and finally shows he has some cajones when it comes to negotiating. 

Stick it to the deserters I say, and take your time finding the new member to fill their shoes. Everyone's assuming a school like UConn or Cincinnati is the logical choice, but are both unappealing options. 

I say take that $50 million and pay a better candidate's exit fee from some other conference. 

Or, umm...Notre Dame, are you sure you don't want to play football with us for real? Pleeeeeeeease?  

More Than ACCeptable: ND to ACC

For the past several years, the only constant in collegiate athletics has been change. Teams have been moving conferences, some have said they would move ultimately to change their minds, and surprisingly enough some have stayed put.

Without question, football has been the primary driver of the changing landscape. After all, it is the primary revenue generator by a wide margin. Basketball has played a small part and even to some extent hockey, but that is essentially it when it comes to revenue generators. Perhaps some ACC institutions would consider baseball to be in the black but the majority of the country would disagree.

Speaking of the ACC, groundbreaking news was shared earlier today when the University of Notre Dame announced it accepted an invitation to join the ACC in all sports except football, which will remain independent, and hockey, which will join Hockey East in 2013. Hear firsthand from Notre Dame's Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick in the following interview about today's historic announcement.

Many are quick to display their disgust and resentment of the Irish for retaining its independence in football, wondering why on earth the ACC, its commissioner John Swofford, and each instutition's athletic directors would permit such an atrocity. If partisanship for the Irish, whether in favor of or against, is removed from the equation, the carefully trained eye uncovers that while the Irish certainly benefit from the move, members of the ACC benefit as well.

To get the sticking points of the football side of the deal out of the way, Notre Dame will play five ACC schools each season - three at home and two on the road - with the qualification that each ACC member must be scheduled at least once every three seasons. 

Notre Dame will in turn be able to retain games against traditional rivals such as USC, Navy, and Stanford among others. There is also likely to be a rotation of traditional Big Ten rivals Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue.

Moreover, and this is likely the biggest feather in the cap for the Irish, Notre Dame will gain access to the ACC's post-season bowl tie-ins. In possible scenarios, Notre Dame could actually play in the Orange Bowl as an at-large against the ACC Champion. No, the Irish will not be permitted to play in the ACC championship game since they will not be a full time football member.

Additionally, a Notre Dame team within one win of an ACC school would be eligible for selection over that ACC school, though. In other words, a 7-5 Notre Dame team could be selected to take an 8-4 ACC school's spot in one of their bowl tie-ins.

Where do the benefits for the ACC start kicking in, you ask? It's simple - exposure. Like them or not, the Irish draw attention wherever and whomever they play. Unlike most schools, Notre Dame has a national fan base that will naturally allow ACC schools, who by definition reside along the Atlantic Coast in eastern cities, exposure in markets they would not normally have an opportunity to take advantage of. 

After all, there were two big announcements today: Notre Dame's conference move and the iPhone 5. Depending on your news outlet, it is difficult to discern which communication received more press.

Going back to the point on exposure, it is likely that the ACC will experience ratings boosts in games featuring the Irish, which will only help in future television contract negotiations with networks. To be sure, the ACC will only have broadcasting rights to games featuring the Irish on the road against its full member schools, but something is certainly better than nothing.

This point on exposure is not based on pompous attitudes that Notre Dame football is better than everyone else. As it is, the product on the field has been quite mediocre as of late so that argument is out of the question. Where Note Dame arguably does a better job of any other institution, though, is in terms of its fan base.

Most schools have established fans in very specific geographic regions within close proximity to campus. Florida, for example has a strong base within Florida, USC has a strong base on the west coast, and Michigan has a strong base in the midwest. Notre Dame has a tremendous fan base everywhere, not just in the US but also abroad.

What the move also does for the ACC is create excitement within each school's respective fan bases. After all, anti-ND fans look forward to beating the Irish. Of course, schools want to beat every team on their schedule, but given Notre Dame's illustrious history and boastful fan base, victories over the Irish are relished more so than usual.

Traditional rivalry games, such as Virginia Tech versus Virginia and Duke versus North Carolina, will rein supreme for each respective fan base, but games against the Irish will also hold special meaning.

Aside from football, other sports should benefit for all parties involved as well. Notre Dame's soccer programs, perennial national championship threats, will fit in nicely with the ACC's rich tradition in the sport. Lacrosse will also benefit as the Irish have quickly ascended the national ranks and are now one of the nation's top programs with trips to the final four in two of the last three seasons. In fact, one of their title losses came to ACC power Duke. Track and Field has been a strength of Notre Dame's as well as the ACC's so there is mutual benefit there as well. Golf and baseball in the ACC were probably better off without Notre Dame, but the addition will not hurt.

John Swofford and the ACC athletics director's clearly must have seen such benefits, else they would have had no reason to extend an invitation to Notre Dame in the first place. Let it be clear, Jack Swarbrick and Notre Dame did not force the ACC into offering an invitation. A mutual agreement was reached between all parties due to the realization that each had something to gain from the deal.

Case in point, while Notre Dame retains its exclusive NBC contract for broadcast of its home games, the Irish will not share in the ACC's contract with ESPN. It's a give-take relationship and all parties benefit.

All in all, Notre Dame and the ACC are better off today than they were yesterday. At the very least, ACC fans can take solace in the fact that the conference raised its exit fee charge to $50MM. Suffice to say, the ACC will look like this for years to come. It is undoubtedly stable and perhaps now immune from future conference expansion threats and opportunities.

Notre Dame Joins ACC...Sort Of

In typical Notre Dame fashion, they've finally elected to join the ACC solely for football reasons and managed to not actually join the conference fully for football.

It's classic hypocrisy as only the Irish can muster. They'll play five games a season against ACC competition meaning they can have their cake and eat it too.

They'll get to pick and choose which rivalries they keep and which become rarer than an ND bowl win.

They'll no doubt get special treatment and not have to paint the ACC logo on their historic and soon to be synthetic field. Perhaps the Irish will have gold-embossed portable logos for the weeks they're part of the conference that can be easily removed the rest of the time.

I'm certain there will be equal revenue sharing amongst all 15 (yikes!) ACC programs even though Notre Dame will continue to hold onto their unique television deal with NBC without sharing.

The only thing ACC commissioner John Swofford managed to leverage in favor of the existing conference members is that the Irish won't be eligible for the ACC Championship game.

It's outrageous that the ACC cowed to the demands of a prospective member like this. It shows once again that greedheads like Swofford care nothing about "student-athletes" or the integrity of their organization and only about the almighty dollar.

As Notre Dame's president, the Rev. John I. Jenkins said of the ACC's arrangement, "I don't think there's out there a better situation than the one we have."

Yeah, no crap.

As my dear friend Eric succinctly put it earlier, "I wish we weren't humoring their [Notre Dame] laughably pompous and misguided exceptionalism."

Indeed.

Here come the Irish...to the Atlantic Coast.

It's not all bad of course. People are talking about ACC football in a slightly less sarcastic way than normal which has always been a problem.

It will open ACC football to a Notre Dame fan base that is only intimately familiar with the bottom-dwellers of the league.

Most importantly, Notre Dame will finally have to take on opponents like Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson and Miami without being able to dictate the terms of when and where they play.

The Irish are notoriously difficult to schedule because of their insistence to make non-rival opponents play multiple games in South Bend in exchange for only one game on their own campus.

That will now only be an issue for the "non-conference" opponents, whatever that means to the Irish.

Now Notre Dame will dig into their bottomless pockets to pay what is sure to be a hefty exit fee from the Big East. They will join their new conference members on unequal footing, but what else is new?

Oh yeah, welcome to the ACC.